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When will the outbreak ease in Virginia? Expert: mid-next month or release of restrictions

2019-nCoV Special
Source: xkb.com.au
[Social News]     12 Aug 2020
Experts talk about the state's re-emergence of a large new outbreak, said the state's increasing number of new crown cases must be reduced to less than 20 cases, in order to safely begin to relax the restrictions. However, the state is not far from reaching this anti-epidemic milestone.
When will the outbreak ease in Virginia? Expert: mid-next month or release of restrictions

The streets of Melbourne are very few. (Web Images)

Experts talk about the state's re-emergence of a large new outbreak, said the state's increasing number of new crown cases must be reduced to less than 20 cases, in order to safely begin to relax the restrictions. However, the state is not far from reaching this anti-epidemic milestone.

However, the Vizhou authorities did not exclude the possibility of extending the existing embargo measures. Governor Andrews (Daniel Andrews) stressed earlier this week that the possible lifting of the blockade was determined by the number of new cases per day. There are currently no "magic numbers" for increasing cases.

The last increase in fewer than 20 cases in Virginia was about seven weeks ago, before a second-round surge began. However, the state reported 725 new cases last Wednesday.

Although the "war epidemic" in vizhou is still grim, some epidemiologists say the number of new crown infections may decline as quickly as before.

The view was expressed that the withdrawal of restrictions from mid-September would be feasible, although it would depend on the level of success of the health sector and the public in eliminating cases of unknown sources of infection.

The current phase 4 restraining order in Melbourne Metropolitan Area will end on September 13. And Mitchell County (Mitchell Shire) and remote areas of Virginia are in the third phase of the blockade.

Professor Bennett (Catherine Bennett), director of epidemiology at the University of Deacon (Deakin University), predicts that the number of new cases per day may decline relatively quickly if the restriction reduces the infection rate to 0.5, that is, every two new crown infections will infect only virus another person.

"If we have 200 cases in a week, we could have about 100 cases in the next week. It may therefore take two or three weeks to recover to the level of earlier double-digit growth. "As long as we don't have a new outbreak, it's probably close ," she said. "

Bennett added that although she did not expect Melbourne to pull back to phase III by September 13, it was safe to start adjusting some of the phase IV restrictions or regulations in certain areas before the officially announced end date. "It is possible that some areas considered to be at low risk will be freed. "

Toul (Mike Toole), an epidemiologist at the Burnett Institute (Burnet Institute), estimates that Melbourne may return to phase III blockade within a month, possibly even shorter.

However, Thur set a fairly high threshold for easing the restrictions, restrictions, emphasizing that in order for the state to return to the third phase of the restrictions, it should achieve "zero reporting" of unidentified cases, maintain a low number of increasing cases, and be able to quickly track and detect contacts.

In recent weeks, the daily increase in cases in neighboring states has been between 10 and 20. Dr mathews (John Mathews), an epidemiologist at the university of melbourne, points out that vizhou needs to reach the same level in order to adjust the current restrictions.

Matthews is not optimistic about the timing of the state's release. He said it could take more than six weeks for the state to achieve case data similar to the new state under the strict blockade ." If the blockade and social distance precautions are loosened too quickly, we will soon fall back to the same situation. "

"The new state must do its utmost to maintain its present state ," he cautioned. Their contact tracking has not exceeded the load. "

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